Lions or Rams: Who Won the Trade?

An unprecedented QB swap happened over this weekend between the Lions and Rams. The Rams have agreed to sending Jared Goff, two future 1st-round picks, and a 3rd-round pick to the Lions in exchange for Matthew Stafford. Many online are declaring that the Rams won this trade, and they are now Super Bowl contenders for next year. Some are also saying that although it does not help them right away, the Lions won because of the multiple picks to help kick off their rebuild project.

Who really won the trade? Here we take a look at the two QB's performance from the 2020 season to conclude the winners and losers of this trade.

First, the meaning of the stats

In order to get a glimpse of how these two quarterbacks and teams truly performed, we are going to conduct analysis through the lenses of two telling stats. These stats are Performance Value and Average Opponent Production vs. Others

Performance Value (PV) measures how valuable a touchdown, interception, point, or yard is from that team comes from considering their opponents. Having a PV = 1 means that the team is exactly average in that stat, or that they produce the same amount that their opponents normally allow. Therefore, having PV > 1 means that they produce on average more than what their opponents normally allow. Typically, if it is better for an offense to have higher totals for that stat (Offensive touchdowns, points, yards OR Defensive interceptions and sacks) it is better for their performance value to be higher, and vice versa for stats that you want to be lower (such as interceptions on offense OR yards allowed, points allowed, or touchdowns allowed on Defense).

Average Opponent Production vs. Others considers how good are the team's opponents against all other teams. For example, how much does it mean that a quarterback throws 3TD in one game? The Opponent's Production vs Others considers how  many touchdowns that opponent allows against all other teams they faced. Therefore the Average of this for the Lions is Rams is the Average for all opponents they faced during the 2020 season. These are all normalized as well so that they are on a similar scale / have a similar meaning to the PV stat.  

So now we've explained, lets jump in

Lions vs. Rams Pass Performance in 2020

First lets look at the comparison with Pass Yards per Game. The X-Axis shows each team's PV for Pass-Yards, and the Y-Axis shows the average Pass-Yards per game allowed be all of a team's opponents. The points representing the Lions and Rams is annotated in their team color.

What we can gain from this is that in terms of passing yards, both QBs performed similarly, close to 1.1 PV for Pass Yards. However, they differ on the y-axis. This means the following: the Lions' opponents on average allowed more Pass Yards than the Rams opponents. Because the Ram's opponents were more difficult in this regard and their PV is almost equal, its fair to say that Jared Goff and the 2020 Rams were better in this regard.

Now, lets take a look at the comparison with Pass Touchdowns (TDs) per Game:

Comparing the Lions and Rams with this stat is difficult to declare who was better. For example, the Rams had a lower PV for Pass TD's, meaning that they scored less Pass TDs than other team's against the same opponents, but at the same time their opponents give away less Pass TDs than other teams. on average. The Lions on the other hand achieved almost a score of 1.0 for both of these stats. Because their PV is higher, this means they don't perform worse than other teams like the Rams did in this category. And for that reason, it is fair to say that the Lions were better in this regard.

Finally, lets take a look at Interceptions Thrown

Now this is a stat where having a PV > 1 is not good, because more interceptions is never a good thing. The Rams and Jared Goff were much better than Stafford and the Lions in 2020 in this regard. Jared Goff and the Rams in 2020 had close to a PV=1.0 for interceptions thrown, whereas Stafford and the Lions had a PV=1.34 for interceptions thrown. Similarly, Jared Goff and the Rams faced much tougher opponents than the Lions. The Rams' opponents collected 1.2x more interceptions against other teams compared to how much they collected against the Rams. But the Lions' opponents collected 0.85x the interceptions against other teams compared to how much they collected against the Lions. This clearly shows that when it comes to interceptions, Jared Goff and the Rams were much better than Matt Stafford and the Lions.

Final Score:     Matt Stafford - 1     Jared Goff - 2

More to Consider:

Although it is close when it comes to the quarterbacks, these teams are much different when it comes to the other parts of their teams. There is a reason that the Lions are picking in the Top-10 and that the Rams almost made it to the NFC Championship with an injured Aaron Donald.

Lions vs. Rams on Defense

Starting with the defense, these two teams could not be more opposite. Checkout a similar comparison with the defensive stats in the gallery below: (swipe slideshow or click numbers on right to see all)

The Rams might be the best defense in the NFL during the 2020 season, with them ranking in the top-5 in ALL but two defensive PV categories, and of the two they are not in the top five they are ranked #9 and #15.  The Detroit Lions defense on the other hand is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Its no denying that this will be a big reason that the Rams will be more confidently in the playoff hunt next year than the Lions. 

Lions vs. Rams: Running Game

The Lions and Rams both had rookie running backs with great years: D'Andre Swift for the Lions, and Cam Akers for the Rams. But doing a similar comparison with these two offenses rushing attack, as was conducted with Goff vs. Stafford, may give more insight into which rookie running back is leading a better running offense.

First taking a look at the Rush Yards per Game for both teams, with once again the PV on the x-axis and the average of their opponents Rush-Yards allowed per game.

Right away, we can see that in terms of yards that the Rams were the better rush-offense, and much of this may be due to Sean McVay's offensive strategy. However, the Rams being stronger with respect to yards is verified with the face that the Ram's opponents were stronger against Rush Yards than the Lions.

This is where this type of analysis can be very telling. The Lion's PV for Rush TDs is much higher than anyone in the entire NFL. The three above them you can probably guess: the Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, and Tennessee Titans. Although the Rams and Lions recorded roughly the same number of Rush TDs (19 and 17 respectively), the Lions faced on average the toughest defenses with Rush TDs. To name a few, they faced (and their ranking for Rush TDs Allowed): The Buccaneers (#2), Washington (#5), the Saints (#1), the Cardinals (#6). This shows that next year facing more average rush defenses, this rush attack has the potential to explode. 

Conclusion

In terms of looking at the trade alone, according to this analysis Jared Goff in the Rams offense played similarly to Matt Stafford in the Lions offense. The Rams without a doubt have a better overall talented roster than the Lions. The Rams will likely be better than the Lions next season and be contending for the playoffs and Super Bowl. In terms of the performance of the two players and the picks involved, this analysis concludes that the Lions got the better deal. 

For the Rams: With that defense, overall offensive talent, and coach, they will absolutely be in the playoff picture next year. But, the summary of this trade should be that it is worth trading the picks because of the non-analytics and overall team talent. Jared Goff clearly wasn't fitting in LA anymore, and trading for Stafford has given them a spark already. Plus, the Rams overall on offense are more talented and the defense is Super Bowl ready, so it should not be surprising if the Rams are beating the Lions in every category next season. However, only time will tell the effect of not having 1st-round picks for the next few years. Stafford does beat Goff in regards to Pass TDs, so maybe this could mean they could lean on their QB next year to turn stagnant drives or field-goal drives into touchdown drives. 

For the Lions: they got a QB who was once in the Super Bowl: a QB who can be successful with the right scheme and with the right players around him. If I'm the Lions, I'm thinking about how I have an under-rated run attack to lean on next year alongside a QB who wants to prove some people wrong. But you cannot deny this defense needs some major work. The Lions should hopefully be putting most of their offseason attention, through free-agency and the draft, into that defense. Maybe if they do that, the Lions could be a little better than we think come next year.