POWER RANKINGS

Week 15 Recap: Power Rankings

Quite the shake-up after Week 15 games. Several upsets have the ability to add major changes to the power rankings, with the Jets catching their first win against the Rams, and the Steelers dropping their third straight loss to the Bengals without Joe Burrow. Below, we show the Power Rankings based on the teams performance through all 15 weeks, and also by considering the individual performances against each opponents they face. This results in the True-Value statistic, which we can get a more true understanding of how all 32 teams size-up with one another. The rankings below consider the True-Value of each team's defense and offense, resulting in the Power Rankings.

POWER RANKINGS

The Power Rankings can be summarized by splitting the teams into four Tiers:

• Tier 1: Need Major Change (ranks 23-32)
• Tier 2: On the Up-Swing (ranks 15-22)
• Tier 3: One Piece Away (ranks 11-14)
• Tier 4: True Contenders (ranks 1-10)

We will show the teams from the bottom up, starting with the lower tiers and building up to the top contenders.

Tier 1: Need Major Change

The teams in Tier 1 are in need of some major change. The Broncos, Jaguars and Jets take the bottom three spots in the Week 15 Rankings. According to our model using game statistics in the context of their opponents (True-Value), these three teams have the three worst offenses, and some of the worst defenses, in the league according to our True-Value statistic. Although they are some solid players on these teams, they are in need of major change either at the QB, Coach, or both.

​The remaining teams all have shown sparks but still have some major holes overall as a team. Starting with the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders. Despite having some great offensive performances, they have the worst ranked defenses according to our True-Value statistic, and perhaps will all need to address this in free agency or the draft to make any major progress going into next year.

​The Texans, Bengals, and Eagles have shown flashes, but not enough consistency. The Texans firing their coach early in the year showed that this was a botched season, and trading away Deandre Hopkins for David Johnson was clearly a mistake. Their rush offense is one of the worst in the league. The Bengals have been performing well on defense, but the absence of Joe Burrow is showing the holes in their offense. Finally, the Eagles have suffered from so many injuries this year and the atrocious year from Carson Wentz. Despite having the question of Hurts vs. Wentz for next season, they have enough talent to bounce back next year. 

​

Tier 2: On the Up-Swing

These Teams are considered in the second Tier, showing flashes of potential and are on the up-swing for next year. 

The Chargers and Giants have demonstrated this year they have solid rosters that are getting better with experience. Justin Herbert for the Chargers is winning them games and may be on his way to Rookie of the Year. It will be great to see how he can improve even more in his second year. The Giants despite having some bad performances recently, are proving they can be competitive under Joe Judge. With more experience for Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley coming back, and more incoming talent through the draft, the Giants are in position to be competitive next year.

The Panthers, Bears, Niners, and Washington all are teams that nobody wants to face going into the end of the year. Despite where they have had struggles whether its due to injury or tough stretches of games, they are always competitive. With the right pieces added during the offseason, any of these teams can compete in the playoffs next year, and for the Bears and Washington, they may even get a chance this year despite some of the difficulties of their 2020 season.

Finally, the Vikings and Falcons complete the top two spots of this Tier. Both of these teams have the ability to be truly competitive. The Vikings have a top offense with rookie stand-out Justin Jefferson, and one of the best running backs in the league Dalvin Cook. There is no doubt in my mind that next year with a third place schedule they can be a playoff team. The Falcons have that same ability. It is truly historic  to see how many different was they can continue to blow so many leads, in an alternate universe where they do hold onto those leads are have one of the best records in the NFL, we are talking about the talent they have all around. Perhaps these two teams are two that nobody wants to face to end the year, and in similar situations going into the next season.

Tier 3: One Piece Away

This is where it gets interesting. Because our model does not take into account wins, just contextualized performance, the teams in this tier are almost all guaranteed to appear in the playoffs. Despite that, the model having them ranked this show does demonstrate some truth.

The Cleveland Browns have demonstrated over the past few weeks that they have the offensive fire-power to compete in any shootout. With so many offensive weapons, there is no doubt that they are a top-10 offense according to our True-Value statistic. However, in that same light, they are a bottom-third defense. This could be an area that could come back to haunt them in the playoffs.

The Dolphins on the other hand, have a great secondary and defense overall allowing them to stay in the game with anyone.  However, because they have some offensive struggles, I do not see this team making it very far in the playoffs if they can capture the final Wild Card spot. For this team, more experience for Tua and more weapons added on offense in the offseason will allow this team to take the next step.

The Colts are such a well balanced team and have proven over the course of the season that they can contend with anyone. The Colts are truly going to be a must-watch in the playoffs because of the talent and coaching. It will be interesting to see if they have enough on offense to make it past some of the top teams in the AFC, and if not getting more weapons could make this team a powerhouse for next season.

The Steelers are turning out to be the most interesting 11-win team ever. Despite having a fantastic defense with future Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt, they have struggled during their three game losing streak on offense. Over that streak, the offense has scored 17, 15, and 17 against average defenses. Our model which does not take wins into account is showing here that the Steelers are not exactly what their 11-3 record say they are, and that they are in serious danger of losing the AFC-North title. Ending the year with the Colts and Browns, its entirely possible that they end the year as a 11-5 Wild Card team. Perhaps if this season ends on a down-swing for the Steelers, adding more depth on offense (or even a QB?) would be a good move for them.

Tier 4: True Contenders

The Top 10 Teams going into the final two weeks of the 2020 NFL season. These teams have been performing in a way that makes them true contenders with the talent they have. 

The Cardinals have shown throughout the season that with Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins, their offense took another step up, and it is giving them wins. They have a top-10 offense according to True-Value statistic, and a defense that has shown to step up at points in the season. However, their defense has not been too consistent, and this contributes to being ranked at the bottom of this tier.

The Los Angeles Rams coming in at #9 after such a disappointing loss to the Jets. With that loss, they no longer hold first place in the NFC-West. Having the top defense according to our True-Value statistic and an offense that can hold on to victories, the Rams are still a threat to take the top spot in their division and to compete for a title.

The Ravens, despite being out of the playoffs right now, have the talent to compete if they can sneak in. Having both top 10 offense and defense according to true-value statistic, it will be up to Lamar and the Passing Offense to get wins in the playoffs, but until then they have to find a way to get into the tournament.

The Titans have such a potent offense with Derrick Henry and AJ Brown playing out of their minds this year, and Ryan Tannehill showing he is worth the extension they gave him. The Titans have the ability to compete in a shootout with some of the top teams in the AFC. However, if they can be stopped and are forced to rely on their defense it may be hard. The Titans Offense is top-3 according to our True-Value statistic and their defense is ranked in the bottom-10. This contributes to why they are ranked out of the top 5, and may be a reason why they lose a game in the playoffs.

The Buffalo Bills are the #5 team, and their offense two is absolutely on fire. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are leading the way to be a top-5 offense in the league according to our True-Value statistic. They have already clinched their division and are going to end the season as one of the top threats in the AFC and to make an appearance in the Super Bowl. 

The New Orleans Saints are the $4 Team, with a top-10 offense and top-5 defense. This team is so well rounded and well coached that they can be a true threat to any team in the NFC. The question will be how can Drew Brees get back to where he was before his injury in time for the playoffs?

The Buccaneers despite losing to the Saints this year come ahead of them at #3. The Bucs according to our True-Value statistic have the #2 ranked defense, and with the ability for Tom Brady to lead a comeback like he did during this previous game, anyone who matches up with the Bucs are going to have a handful during the playoffs

The Packers come in as the #2 Team and the top team of the NFC with the Power Rankings. Aaron Rodgers having an MVP level season and the packers having the #2 ranked Pass Offense. The packers have shown to get beaten by worthy competition, but the way they are playing right now there is no denying that they are one of the best teams in the NFC and should be considered favorites to come out of the NFC.

The Kansas-City Cheifs hold the #1 spot in the Power Rankings this week. They continue to prove each and every week new ways to win. They can win in flashy shootouts, comback victories, or steady and strategic game-managed games. Patrick Mahomes proves once again that he is the top QB of the league, and with all of their offensive weapons should absolutely be considered the top threat in the NFL to repeat as Super Bowl champions.